I. Market Review

The main contract of soybean meal M2409 closed at 3399 yuan / ton, up 23 yuan / ton or 0% over the previous trading day.Cryptogamesforandroidfreetoplay.68%, the highest price is 3399 yuan / ton, the lowest price is 3364 yuan / ton, the turnover is 1271767 lots, the position is 2095592 lots, the increase is-33495 lots.

Spot quotation in some parts of China today (RMB / ton)

Second, the news situation

1. National grain: last week, the domestic soybean crushing capacity was 1.92 million tons.

News from the National Grain and Oil Information Center on April 29: the opening rate of oil plants remained high last week. Monitoring shows that in the week of April 26, the domestic soybean crushing volume was 1.92 million tons, down 30,000 tons from the previous week, and rising by 400000 tons month-on-month, which was 280000 tons higher than the average in the same period last year and 260000 tons higher than the average in the past three years. According toCryptogamesforandroidfreetoplayIt is understood that most oil factories remain on during the May Day holiday. Soybean crushing capacity is expected to be about 1.8 million tons this week. The total amount of soybean crushed by domestic oil factories in April is about 7.5 million tons, compared with 7.05 million tons in the same period last year.

2. National Food: last week, soybean meal stocks in oil factories continued to rise.

News from the National Grain and Oil Information Center on April 30: with the increase in the opening rate of oil plants, domestic soybean meal stocks continued to rise last week. Monitoring shows that on April 26, soybean meal stocks in major oil factories in China were 500000 tons, up 40,000 tons from the previous week, down 530000 tons from the stage high on January 19, up 250000 tons from the same period last year, and 60,000 tons higher than the average in the past three years, which is in the middle level of the same period in history.

3. Last week, the inspection volume of US soybean exports was 250000 tons, a decrease of 39% compared with the same period last year.

Washington, April 29 / PRNewswire-FirstCall-Asianet /-- USDA export inspection report shows that U.S. soybean exports show a seasonal decline as South American soybeans are entering the peak harvest season. Last week, the inspection volume of U. S. soybean exports was 44% lower than a week ago and 39% lower than the same period last year.

In the week ended April 25, 2024, the inspection volume of U.S. soybean exports was 250.CryptogamesforandroidfreetoplayLast week, it was a revised 443508 tons, compared with 407973 tons in the same period last year. So far this year, the total amount of soybean export inspection in the United States has reached 38747671 tons, down 18.4 percent from the same period last year. Last week, it was down 18.2% from a year earlier, and 18.5% from a year earlier two weeks ago.

Last week, the United States shipped 9000 tons of soybeans to China, a decrease of 95 percent over the same period last year.

Washington, April 29: U.S. exports of soybeans to China (mainland) fell 96 percent last week from a week ago and 95 percent from the same period last year, according to the USDA Export Inspection Weekly report.

In the week ending April 25, 2024, the United States shipped 9257 tons of soybeans to China (mainland), compared with 219144 tons in the previous week and 196336 tons in the same period in 2023. U. S. soybean exports to China accounted for 3.7% of the total that week, compared with 50.3% last week and 46.2% two weeks ago.

III. Fundamentals

1. Crushing capacity and operating rate

According to my agricultural products (000061) network, as of the week of April 19, the actual operating rate of soybeans in the oil plant was 60%, the actual crushing capacity was 1.7706 million tons, the opening rate last week was 56%, and the actual crushing capacity was 1.6477 million tons.

2. Soybean import

Soybean imports in March were 5.541 million tons, down from 6.538 million tons in the same period last year.CryptogamesforandroidfreetoplayBy 997000 tons, a decrease of 15.25%. An increase of 425100 tons from 5.1159 million tons in the same period last month. Soybean imports from January to February this year were 13.037 million tons, down 8.8 percent from the same period last year, and 14.29 million tons from January to February last year. China imported a total of 100.868 million tons of soybeans in 2222 23, compared with 91.607 million tons in the same period last year, an increase of 10.1% over the same period last year.

3. Soybean and soybean meal inventory

According to my agricultural products network data, as of April 19, the commercial inventory of soybeans in the country's major oil factories was 3.1845 million tons, down 19100 tons from last week, or 0.6%, at the middle level in the same period in previous years.

According to my agricultural products network data, as of April 19, the soybean meal inventory of major oil factories in China was 415500 tons, an increase of 112800 tons, or 37.3%, over last week.

IV. Summary

CBOT soybean futures rose on Monday after Argentine oilseed workers went on strike in the international market. Oilseed workers in one of Argentina's largest ports have gone on strike to protest against the government's reform proposals.

According to the weekly crop growth report released by u.s. agriculture, the u.s. soybean planting rate in the week ended April 28, 2024, was 18%, higher than market expectations of 17%, up from 8% the previous week, 16% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 10%.

In the domestic market, the import volume of soybeans to Hong Kong rebounded, the opening rate of oil plants increased, soybean meal inventory showed signs of turning point, and the power of oil plants declined. With the gradual realization of loose domestic supply expectations, the upside space of soybean meal is limited. In the future, we will focus on the arrival of soybeans, changes in soybean meal inventory, weather conditions in major producing areas in the United States, and so on.